Read MoreWelcome back to the critical Channel everyone my name is Josh and this video is an important one to watch all the way to the end because we've just seen the Federal Reserve hike interest rates by another 75 basis points which initially caused markets to pump up until the Jerome power press conference because what the chair of the Federal Reserve.
Said in that press conference actually caused Marcus to dump not long after and in just a moment I'll be talking more about that also in this video I'll be covering what the Federal Reserve is likely about to do next I will also be covering the Bitcoin price as always as it is just holding on to support and the ethereum price which has already.
Initiated its break to the downside all of that and so much more later in the video so make sure you watch to the end first of all we need to talk about the recent fomc meeting and rate hike of course we saw a 75 basis point hike which was the most likely outcome if you're watching my recent videos on the channel and so this new 75 basis point.
Hike has increased the target range for the federal funds rate up to three percent to 3.25 but the majority of these charts you'll find to track the larger figure so 3.25 as the federal fund rates and now once again if you've been watching my recent videos over the last few days you would know going into this fomc meeting that the most likely.
Outcome was a 75 basis point hike with the markets pricing in a small probability of a possible 100 basis point hike and So based on that information technically speaking the 75 pesos Point hike was the more bullish option and the 100 at basis points hike was obviously the more bearish option and so due to the fact that we did end.
Up seeing a 75 basis point hike as I tweeted out pretty much as soon as it happened happened not long after the rate hike was announced we actually saw a pump across markets obviously as you can see here this is the price of Bitcoin on the three minute time frame it was pumping over the next 30 to 50 minutes pretty much immediately after.
The 75 basis point hike was announced but that was up until the jurong power press conference which took place roughly half an hour after the rate hike was announced and in case you don't already know who Jerome power is he is the chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States so definitely something important to pay attention to and now if.
You want to watch the full 40 minutes long press conference it is over on the federal reserve's official YouTube channel if you want to but basically what Jerome Powell was saying in that press conference right here that caused Marcus to dump not long after was a mix of multiple things one of those things being his hawkish tone basically making.
It very clear to everyone that the FED is very focused at bringing inflation back down to two percent and they're basically going to stop at nothing until inflation comes back down and so already based on that that markets were beginning to price in a little bit more pain ahead than already expected but then a little later in the press.
Conference Jerome Powell actually said that the labor market is still too strong so he actually prefers to see a softening in the labor market which basically means more rate hikes and on top of that Jerome power actually mentioned in that press conference that he basically wants to see a correction in the real estate market to help reset.
The real estate market and so obviously based on all of that that was said in the Jerome power press conference that essentially caused a dump across markets as markets began to price in more pain ahead and so once again just a really quick summary right here we saw the 75 basis point hike which was the bullish out of the two options and so initially.
Over the next half an hour to an hour we saw the markets pump up until the Jerome press conference and based on what he said in that press conference that essentially dumped markets not long after and we can actually see that the market did price in some more pain ahead based on what the Futures Market is currently price passing in for the.
Probabilities of future fed meetings and now of course between now and the next fed meeting which by the way is towards the beginning of November these probabilities can change and will most likely be changed based on what CPI inflation comes in at next month but basically as of right now based on what the Futures Market has actually priced.
In there's around a 35 chance of seeing a 50 basis point hike at the next fed meeting at the beginning of November and a 65 chance of another 75 basis point hike at the next fed meeting and so at least as of right now the most likely outcome at the next fed meeting is another 75 basis point hike and if we see that happen at the next fed meeting.
In a little over a month from now then that would essentially bring the federal funds rate up to four percent and just before getting into the charts a day quickly taking a look at the probabilities for future further meetings beyond the November fed meeting and if we're simply looking at what the majority of the Futures Market has.
Currently priced in the majority of the Futures Market once again is currently priced in another 75 basis point hike happening at the next fed meeting as the most likely scenario and then the meeting after that which takes place in December the majority is expecting another 50 basis point hike in the December fed meeting and then after that.
During the FED meeting that we see in February next year the majority is expecting just a 25 basis point hike in that fed meeting and simply based on what the Futures markets has priced in right now that is currently expected to be the final rate hike before essentially the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rates at that level.
For quite a while and if you've been watching my videos over the last one to two months then you'll know that previously these future probabilities were showing the rate Cuts so the full-on FED U-turn to happen sometime during the middle of next year as in around June or July was previously when the majority were expecting the Federal.
Deserve to actually begin counting interest rates again but once again based on what Jerome Powell said at the recent press conference basically telling us that there's probably going to be a little bit more pain ahead we've seen Market participants actually push back that point where the Federal Reserve will eventually begin cutting.
Interest rates again so instead of perhaps around to the middle of next year it's most likely based on what the market is currently priced in it's most likely going to happen towards the end of next year and so at least as of right now the majority has already priced in for the federal funds rate to go up towards 4.75 also known as 475 basis.
Points and to be held there all the way up until around September to November next year and then at that point sometime later next year begin cutting interest rates again and in case you're new to all of this this is definitely something important to watch out for because when we eventually see that fed pivot point so when the FED eventually.
Goes from hiking interest rates which is doing right now to then cutting interest rates which is a question of when not if then when that Pivot Point actually happens that is when we can be much more confident that the bottom for markets are in talking about the crypto market and the stock markets for example but anyway jumping into the charts this.
Right here is the NASDAQ 100 index on The Daily time frame and over the last one day we saw an initial Spike to the upside in the NASDAQ 100 index the moment we got that 75 basis point hike which was the most likely scenario once again but like I just said earlier on that Bitcoin chart as soon as we saw the Jerome press conference the same thing.
Happened for the NASDAQ 100 index we saw another dump across the stock market when Jerome Powell came across a lot more hawkish than people were expecting but right here on the charts as a technical indicator this is a bearish signal obviously breaking below the golden Pockets at level of support and now confirming a rejection from that God.
In Pocket which essentially confirms this as resistance now once again this is technically a bearish signal telling us that that we're most likely going to experience some more bearish price action and as for support we could find some support around the 78.6 Fibonacci level which is sitting at roughly around 11.5 to 11.6 K in the NASDAQ 100 index.
But anything below that support level then I'll expect a retest of the June loads all the way back there which is sitting at around 11 000 in the NASDAQ 100 index and in case you're new to all of this and you're wondering why I'm covering the stock market on a crypto channel it's because as I've been saying for nearly two years now on this channel.
The stock market and the crypto markets are heavily correlated which means if we see a major pump across stocks we're most likely going to see a major pump across crypto and vice versa if we see a dump in the stock market we're probably going to experience a dump in the crypto markets and speaking of the crypto Market getting into the Bitcoin part of.
This video and right now at the time of recording this video the price of Bitcoin is still holding on to this level of support which is our most significant range of supports by the way and this price range is coming into play in between around 18 and a half thousand and nineteen thousands and once again as I've been mentioning a lot recently on.
The channel there's obviously a lot of buyers in this price range as we can see time and time again when the price of Bitcoin enters into this price range at around 18 to 19 000 over the last few months we've continued to see the price of Bitcoin it gets bought up out of this price range but if the Bitcoin price continuously retests the same range of.
Support that actually weakens the range of supports because with each test into this range of support that is essentially removing some buyers out of the market because once again there's obviously buyers in this price range buying up the price of Bitcoin which is literally what is supporting the price of Bitcoin at this price range but as.
The price of Bitcoin continues to test this same price range the same buyers at these levels you're essentially removing some buyers out of this range of support as some of the buyers will eventually run out of dollars and so if the price of Bitcoin starts confirming break below this range of support below around 18 and a half thousand then that would.
Basically tell us that there's still sellers remaining right here but there's really no longer any buyers remaining at these prices and so if the price of Bitcoin confirms a break below this importance price range we could end up seeing another decent leg to the downside until we eventually fall down to the next pool of buyers and so.
Technically speaking based on the trend at the moment in the price of Bitcoin forming lower highs and lower lows obviously we're still more bearish than bullish as of right now and pretty much the only bullish things that we can talk about on The Daily time frame is the fact that right now we're still actually holding on to this level of support we.
Haven't confirmed a break below at least not yet and also we're potentially forming a possible bullish Divergence here with lower loads in the daily candle closes but higher lows in the daily Bitcoin RSI but as of right now this hasn't actually been confirmed because we still need to actually confirm the higher low in the daily.
Bitcoin RSI which can be confirmed with at least one daily candle in the green and by the way these daily candle closes in roughly around 17 hours from now but anyway zooming into the shorter term taking a look at the four hour Bitcoin chance we also have another possible bullish Divergence forming right here and technically it has been confirmed.
With one four hour Kendall close but ideally seeing another four hour candle close into green would be even better because as you can see here we have slightly lower lows in the four hour candle closes but higher lows in the four hour Bitcoin RSI and so technically speaking this does mean that we're due to see reduced bearish momentum in the.
Somewhat shorter term relative to the four hour Bitcoin charts and also if we're looking at the four hour Bitcoin macd right now this is showing almost no momentum to either direction we can see in the histogram it's extremely flat when we're going into both the green and the red at the moment and so it's simply based on the four hour bitcoin price.
Oscillators one of the most likely scenarios in the shorter term for Bitcoin as in potentially over the next one to two days is most likely going to be somewhat choppy sideways price action and once again we have some short-term support at slightly underneath 18 and a half thousand and as for some short-term resistance we have resistance right here.
At around 19.4 to 19.5 K and anything above that level I would expect resistance up here at this previous Garden pocket which is sitting at around twenty thousand dollars and now just before getting into the ethereum chance today there's actually a huge opportunity for anyone who trades ethereum which is winning a potential.
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Is the daily ethereum to euros dollar chance and obviously we have this previous head and shortest pattern with a possible left shoulder head and right shoulder here now obviously in the past I've talked about how even though this pattern isn't really a perfect Head and Shoulders pattern because obviously the left shoulder is a little too small.
Compared to the right shoulder but with that being said if there's enough Traders out there looking at this as a head and shoulders pattern and essentially trading it as a head and shoulders pattern then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as people sell ethereum or short ethereum pushing the price lower and so in this case.
Considering ethereum has already broken the neckline multiple days ago which I did actually talk about on the channel back then that does set up a technical price target for this potential head and shot as part it to the downside and that technical price Target is sitting at almost exactly one thousand dollars per eat and we also have Confluence at that.
One thousand dollar price Target based on these previous lows so obviously we have previous support at a thousand and a price Target at one thousand but it is important to understand that between now and that price Target there's obviously some other levels of support such as these Fibonacci levels we have this 78.6 Fibonacci level which is sitting at just.
Above 1.1 K more specifically at around 1 120 to 1 130 but if you're looking at this golden Pockets at level off support with the Fibonacci levels on the linear scale this golden pocket is sitting at around 1.3 K so already we've seen a daily Kettle close below that important support level which is technically a bearish signal but if you use the.
Logarithmic scale for these Fibonacci levels then technically you could argue that the price of eth hasn't actually confirmed a break below the golden pocket at least not yet and in this case the golden pocket would be sitting closer towards one point 2K so that could be another support level to keep in mind but like I just said on the.
Linear scale the price of eth has already broken below that golden pocket level of support so technically we're still looking more bearish than bullish even just based on the trend alone obviously forming lower highs and lower lows we're obviously looking more bearish than bullish we have not confirmed a bullish reversal as of right.
Now and this could also be said about the four hour ethereum chance obviously we saw another rejection from the three day simple moving average which I've been talking about for the past few days because throughout this shorter term downtrend so far this three-day simple moving average has acted as pretty much Perfect Resistance and has actually.
Acted as a perfect signal to short ethereum but something else to consider right now in the four hour ethereum chart just like the four hour Bitcoin chart is a possible bullish debt versions right here because obviously we have lower lows in the price but higher lows in the RSI and as of recorded in this video this has already been.
Confirmed with one four hour candle close and so technically speaks taking these bullish Divergence tells us that we do to see reduced bearish momentum for ethereum in the shorter term as in potentially the next one to two days and looking at the four hour ethereum macd this is also showing us that we have very low momentum to either direction at.
The moment in the immediate short term and so even though the price trend is obviously more bearish than bullish we could potentially be about to enter somewhat of a pause within that bearish Trend where the price might just chop around sideways for a little while maybe over the next one to two days and if you want to know how to maximize your.
Profits in crypto no matter if the price is dumping pumping or just chopping around sideways either way you can make money in crypto by watching these videos popping up right here on your screen the video in the top left of your screen shows you how to make money if the price is going either up or down and the video in the bottom left of your screen shows.
You how to make money in crypto if the price is chopping around sideways but anyway that's everything that I have to say for today I really hope you enjoyed and I'll see you all in the next video